How it works
The price is the product
Bookmakers don't lose because people pick the wrong winners. They lose when someone consistently takes a longer price than a result is worth. That's the entire job here, across NRL, AFL, NBA, NFL, Boxing, WNBA, Soccer, NRLW.
We price the game first
Before looking at a single bookmaker, the market gets its own number — built from the model, the team news and the matchup. That number is the whole business.
Then we shop it
The play only exists if a bookmaker is offering longer than our number. If nobody is, there is no bet, no matter how appealing the game is.
The stake follows the edge
A 2% edge and an 8% edge are not the same bet. Every play goes out with a unit size that reflects how big the gap actually is.
It gets logged either way
Win or lose, the play lands in the public results log with the price taken and the closing price — the only real test of whether the call was right.
What lands in your feed
Plays go out the moment they're locked in, because value evaporates as money arrives. You'll get the market, the price we took and where, the unit stake, our own number for the game, and the price at which the bet is no longer worth placing.
If the price has already gone by the time you look, the play tells you so. Chasing a shortened line is how a winning selection turns into a losing bet.
Broncos +4.5
- Price taken
- 1.95
- Stake
- 2 units
- Edge
- +6.2%
Our number on this line is 1.83. The market has drifted on a late team-list change that the model reads as worth less than a point. Anything above 1.90 is a bet; below 1.88 it isn't.
Illustration of the format members receive — not a past result.
Units and bankroll
A unit is 1% of your betting bankroll
If you've set aside $2,000 for betting, a unit is $20 and a 2-unit play is $40. Everything Value Line publishes is in units, so the same plays work whether your bankroll is $500 or $50,000.
Stakes run from 0.5 to 3 units
The size tracks the size of the edge, not how confident anyone feels. A 3-unit play means the price gap is unusually large — it does not mean the bet is safe.
Start smaller than you think
New members are better off running half-stakes for a month while they get used to the rhythm. Nobody's judgement improves under pressure they can't afford.
What Value Line won't do
- Promise a profit, a strike rate, or a “guaranteed” anything.
- Send a fixed number of plays a day to look busy.
- Post a tip without the price it was taken at.
- Delete a losing run from the results page.
- Chase a bad month with bigger stakes.
Betting is risk. Losing runs happen to every approach that has ever worked, and no amount of research removes them — only ever stake money you can afford to lose. Terms, disclaimer and responsible gambling.