How it works
The price is the product
Bookmakers don't lose because people pick the wrong winners. They lose when someone consistently takes a longer price than a result is worth. That's the entire job here, across NRL, AFL, NBA, NFL, Boxing, WNBA, Soccer, NRLW.
We price the game first
Before looking at a single bookmaker, the market gets its own number — built from the model, the team news and the matchup. That number is the whole business.
Then we shop it
The tip only exists if a bookmaker is offering longer than our number. If nobody is, there is no bet, no matter how appealing the game is.
The stake follows the edge
A 2% edge and an 8% edge are not the same bet. Every tip goes out with a unit size that reflects how big the gap actually is.
It gets logged either way
Win or lose, it lands in the public results log with the price it went out at and what it returned. That log is the only thing that can tell you whether any of this works.
What lands in your feed
Tips go out the moment they're locked in, because value evaporates as money arrives. You'll get the market, the price we took and where, the unit stake, our own number for the game, and the price at which it's no longer worth placing.
Books price the same market differently, so yours may be paying more or less than ours. That's what the minimum price is for. If it's under the number, skip it — chasing a shortened line is how a winning selection turns into a losing bet.
Every tip carries
- The market
- The exact selection, and the game it sits in.
- Our number
- What we priced the market at before looking at a single bookmaker.
- Price taken
- The price we got, and the bookmaker we got it at.
- Unit stake
- Sized to the size of the edge, not the same flat number every time.
- Minimum price
- The number it stops being a bet. If your book is paying under it, don't place it.
- The reasoning
- Written out — what the market has wrong, and why we think so.
Tips themselves go to members only. Every one of them lands in the public results log once it settles.
Units and bankroll
A unit is 1% of your betting bankroll
If you've set aside $2,000 for betting, a unit is $20 and a 2-unit tip is $40. Everything Value Line publishes is in units, so the same tips work whether your bankroll is $500 or $50,000.
Stakes run from 0.5 to 3 units
The size tracks the size of the edge, not how confident anyone feels. A 3-unit tip means the price gap is unusually large — it does not mean the bet is safe.
Start smaller than you think
New members are better off running half-stakes for a month while they get used to the rhythm. If a run of five or six losers in a row would make you stake up to chase it, the unit size is already too big.
What Value Line won't do
- Promise a profit, a strike rate, or a “guaranteed” anything.
- Send a fixed number of tips a day to look busy.
- Post a bet slip with the odds cropped off.
- Delete a losing run from the results page.
- Chase a bad month with bigger stakes.
Betting is risk. Losing runs happen to every approach that has ever worked, and no amount of research removes them — only ever stake money you can afford to lose. Terms, disclaimer and responsible gambling.