Bet the price,
not the team.
Smarter bets. Better value.
- Public results
- No lock-in
- Secure checkout
The record
Audited by you, not by us
Profit / loss
+80.68u
Across 44 settled tips
Return on turnover
+45.8%
176 units staked
Strike rate
77.3%
Value betting wins less often, at longer prices
Average price
1.89
What the tips actually pay — the record isn't built on odds-on favourites
What you actually get
A tip is a name. This is a bet.
Most services send you a team and a time. Without the price, you can't tell a good bet from a bad one — the same selection at 1.95 and at 1.70 are completely different propositions, and only one of them is worth backing.
Every Value Line tip arrives with the number we made it, the price we took, where we took it, the unit stake, and the price at which it stops being a bet at all.
Every tip carries
- The market
- The exact selection, and the game it sits in.
- Our number
- What we priced the market at before looking at a single bookmaker.
- Price taken
- The price we got, and the bookmaker we got it at.
- Unit stake
- Sized to the size of the edge, not the same flat number every time.
- Minimum price
- The number it stops being a bet. If your book is paying under it, don't place it.
- The reasoning
- Written out — what the market has wrong, and why we think so.
Tips themselves go to members only. Every one of them lands in the public results log once it settles.
The method
Four steps, and no step is “trust us”
We price the game first
Before looking at a single bookmaker, the market gets its own number — built from the model, the team news and the matchup. That number is the whole business.
Then we shop it
The tip only exists if a bookmaker is offering longer than our number. If nobody is, there is no bet, no matter how appealing the game is.
The stake follows the edge
A 2% edge and an 8% edge are not the same bet. Every tip goes out with a unit size that reflects how big the gap actually is.
It gets logged either way
Win or lose, it lands in the public results log with the price it went out at and what it returned. That log is the only thing that can tell you whether any of this works.
The difference
Why this isn't another tips group
Results
Them:A feed of winning bet slips, with the losing weeks quietly missing
Us:Every settled tip in one public log — the losing runs included, not just the weeks that went well
Prices
Them:A screenshot with the odds cropped out
Us:The exact price the tip went out at, published before it runs, so it can be checked afterwards
Volume
Them:5+ tips a day, every day, because a quota sells subscriptions
Us:Only the bets that price out. Some days that's four. Some days it's none
Staking
Them:Flat stakes on everything
Us:Unit stakes sized to the size of the edge
Reasoning
Them:“Trust the process”
Us:The number we made it, why the market is wrong, and the price it stops being a bet
Membership
Foundation pricing, while it lasts
The first 100 members get in at the foundation rate and keep it. After that, pricing goes back up. One badly priced bet a week costs more than this does.
Monthly
Month to month$199 foundation pricing
Full access, month to month. Cancel in two taps, whenever you want.
- Every tip across all covered sports
- Sent the moment it's locked in
- The price we took, and where
- Unit stake sized to the edge
- Written reasoning on every tip
- Full public results log
- Members-only chat
- Cancel anytime
Full Access
Most popular$1,999 foundation pricing
One payment for the premium sports picks, the analysis behind every one of them and the rest of the membership content.
- Everything in Monthly
- Premium picks across every sport we cover
- The reasoning and the price taken on each one
- No recurring payments
- Locked in at the foundation price
- First access to new sports and markets
- Direct line to the analyst
Secure checkout by Whop · Prices in AUD · 18+ only
Straight answers
What actually is a value bet?
A bet where the price on offer is longer than the true chance of it landing. We're not trying to pick the most likely winner — we're trying to find the bets the market has priced wrong. Over a long run, that gap is the whole edge. Individual bets still lose, often.
How many tips do I get?
As many as the market gives us, and no more. Some days there are four or five, some days there's nothing worth backing. Services that promise a fixed number of daily tips are filling a quota, and a forced bet is a bad bet.
How are tips delivered?
Straight to members as soon as they're locked in, with the price we took, where we took it, the unit stake and the reasoning. You place them with your own bookmaker — prices differ between books, so there's also a minimum price under which it isn't worth taking.
How do I know the results are real?
Every settled tip is published on the results page with the match, the selection and the price it went out at. Members get each one before it runs, so the log can be checked against what was actually sent. Every losing tip sits on the page beside the winners, which is the part a service hiding behind winning bet slips never shows you.
Stop betting on gut feel. Start betting on price.
Join Value Line and get every tip, every stake and every reason — before the market catches up.
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